2017 Supply and Demand Report: https://www.isbe.net/Documents/ed-supply-demand-2017.pdf
Relative Supply and Demand for Educators
Supply includes all educational personnel available to the schools, regardless of whether they are currently employed by schools or not. Indicators of supply include (1) personnel retained from the previous year; (2) newly endorsed personnel; (3) re‐entering personnel, i.e., newly hired educators with prior experience; and (4) students in the pipeline, i.e., those currently enrolled in professional preparation programs and recent program completers.
(1) Retention rates remain high. The largest supply of educators is the previous year’s workforce. The average annual retention rate for Illinois educators has been 93% for more than 10 years. In 2016‐ 17, 93% of the previous year’s workforce was retained in Illinois public schools. For teachers, 89% were retained in the same position and 4% were retained, but in a different position.
(2) The total number of licenses is down from 2015‐16 to 2016‐17. The second largest source of supply is newly licensed educators. The number of new licenses declined by 4% from 2015‐16 to 2016-17. The largest source of newly licensed educators remains educators who graduated from out‐of‐state institutions, which represent 76% of all new licenses issued in 2016‐17. Out‐of‐state licenses declined by almost 3% from 2015‐16 to 2016‐17, while licenses issued to educators completing in‐state programs declined by 10% from 2015‐16 to 2016‐17.
(3) The decline of re‐entrants hired has continued. The third major source of supply includes educators returning to the profession. We have a data gap from 2011‐12 to 2015‐16 due to the changeover from TSR to EIS in 2012‐13. The number of re‐entrants hired in 2016‐17 was down to 2,644 from 3,855 in 2011‐12.
(4) The pipeline data indicates resiliency as the number of program completers decline, but the number of licenses issued to educators completing in‐state programs increase. In 2016‐17, 59 educational institutions reported more than 6,000 program completers, which represents a decline from almost 8,000 in 2014‐15. However, supply capture, the percentage of completers issued in‐state licenses, increased from 61% in 2014‐15 to 81% in 2016‐17, resulting in an increased number of Entitlement Licenses going from 4,749 issued in 2014‐15 to 5,392 in 2016‐17.
Demand refers to the need for educational personnel to fill positions. Demand factors include (1) changes in student enrollments and (2) workforce growth.
(1) K‐12 student enrollments peaked in 2006-07 and then began a decline, which will continue through 2019‐20. K‐12 enrollments peaked in 2006‐07 after increasing for 17 years. Since then, they have decreased by approximately 100,000 students. ISBE projects a decline of an additional 57,000 K‐12 students between 2016‐17 and 2019‐20.
(2) The teacher workforce remained relatively stable from 2012‐13 to 2016-17. Teacher workforce, the largest component of educator workforce, changed by less than 1% from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. This continues a long‐term trend of a slowly declining teacher workforce since it peaked in 2008‐09.